KAU - Forecast Validation

KERALA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY

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AMIC VALIDATES ITS PRICE FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 2009

The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) in KAU formally inaugurated on 12-10-2009. A price forecast for ungarbled pepper was released in the inaugural function of the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC). The price forecast for ungarbled pepper for the month of October was made at Rs.138 – Rs.145/- per kg. The validation of the forecasts using the actual market price that prevailed at the Kochi market during the month of October 2009 is reproduced below:

DATE	DAY	Price (Rs/Kg)
1/10/2009	THURS	138
2/10/2009	FRI	138
3/10/2009	SAT	143
4/10/2009	SUN	NT
5/10/2009	MON	139
6/10/2009	TUES	140
7/10/2009	WED	140
8/10/2009	THURS	140
9/10/2009	FRI	138
10/10/2009	SAT	138
11/10/2009	SUN	NT
12/10/2009	MON	138
13/10/2009	TUES	136
14/10/2009	WED	136
15/10/2009	THURS	133
16/10/2009	FRI	133
17/10/2009	SAT	133
18/10/2009	SUN	NT
19/10/2009	MON	148
20/10/2009	TUES	132
21/10/2009	WED	132
22/10/2009	THURS	135
23/10/2009	FRI	135
24/10/2009	SAT	135
25/10/2009	SUN	NT
26/10/2009	MON	139
2710/2009	TUES	138
28/10/2009	WED	141
29/10/2009	THURS	142
30/10/2009	FRI	141
31/10/2009	SAT	141
AVERAGE PRICE		138
Predicted Price		138-145

It may be noted that a degree of forecast accuracy is observed for a crop like pepper where wide price variability is experienced.

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